Emulated Effects of Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonist Therapy in the General Population.

Schrage B, Lackner MK, Hoshiyar A, de Lemos JA, Engström G, Grossmann E, Ittermann T, Leistner D, Lorenz T, Lyngbakken MN, Omland T, Panagiotakos DB and 9 more

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Risérus U, Schöttker B, Söderberg S, Thorand B, Wannamethee SG, Ziegler A, Ojeda FM, Blankenberg S, Magnussen C

Journal of the American College of Cardiology11 Mar 2026Cited by 1 (Europe PMC)

PMID41811277DOI10.1016/j.jacc.2026.01.055PepBankPUB-41811277

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Summary

The text of this summary is not shown here, because the article license does not allow reuse. Read it at the source (opens in a new tab)

Text rights: CC BY-NC-ND. Results still quote short attributed sentences.

Results from this study5

No result from this study comes from a test of the peptide.

Studies that did not test the peptide alone5

In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. These results are not evidence about taking Semaglutide.

01Computer modelNot a test of Semaglutide aloneIn silicoEfficacy outcome
In a model of 21,720 survey participants with BMI of 27 or more and high baseline risk, emulated GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy lowered projected 10-year CVD incidence from 13.82% to 10.83%, a relative reduction of 22%.
In plain wordsA computer model projected lower 10-year heart disease risk from GLP-1 drug effects. No drug was given in this study.
Peptide
Semaglutide
Outcome
DecreaseProjected 10-year CVD incidence, emulated GLP-1RA therapy
Study
humann = 21,720
Cardiovascular risk model applied to survey cohorts
Outcome group
Cardiovascular events · Cardiovascular
Measurements
Projected 10-year CVD incidence
10.83%
emulated GLP-1RA therapy
Observed 10-year CVD incidence
13.82%
baseline
Absolute reduction
2.99%
overall
Relative reduction
22%
overall
Source sentences
Summary
Emulated GLP-1RA therapy lowered projected CVD incidence to 10.83% (95% CI: 9.27%-12.39%), an absolute reduction of 2.99% (95% CI: 2.67%-3.31%) and a relative reduction of 22%.
2 context sentences(design, population, supporting numbers)
Summary · context
This study aims to emulate GLP-1RA use for primary prevention by applying risk factor changes observed in the SELECT (Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes) trial to obese individuals at risk of but without established CVD.
Summary · context
This model was applied to 200,012 individuals from 2 contemporary health examination surveys to emulate GLP-1RA therapy by using sex-stratified, placebo-adjusted changes in the 5 risk factors observed with GLP-1RA therapy in SELECT.
In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. This result is not evidence about taking Semaglutide.
Report a problemFND-4181127701
02Computer modelNot a test of Semaglutide aloneIn silicoEfficacy outcome
In the model, emulated GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy gave an absolute CVD risk reduction of 3.14% in men, a relative reduction of 21%.
In plain wordsA computer model projected a heart disease risk drop for male cases if GLP-1 drug effects applied. No drug was given.
Peptide
Semaglutide
Outcome
DecreaseAbsolute CVD risk reduction in men
Study
humann: not reported in source
Cardiovascular risk model applied to survey cohorts
Outcome group
Cardiovascular events · Cardiovascular
Measurements
Absolute reduction
3.14%
men
Relative reduction
21%
men
Source sentences
Summary
Absolute reductions were larger in men than in women (3.14% [95% CI: 2.82%-3.47%] vs 2.7% [95% CI: 2.23%-3.16%]), with similar potential relative reductions across sexes (21% vs 23%).
2 context sentences(design, population, supporting numbers)
Summary · context
This study aims to emulate GLP-1RA use for primary prevention by applying risk factor changes observed in the SELECT (Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes) trial to obese individuals at risk of but without established CVD.
Summary · context
This model was applied to 200,012 individuals from 2 contemporary health examination surveys to emulate GLP-1RA therapy by using sex-stratified, placebo-adjusted changes in the 5 risk factors observed with GLP-1RA therapy in SELECT.
In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. This result is not evidence about taking Semaglutide.
Report a problemFND-4181127702
03Computer modelNot a test of Semaglutide aloneIn silicoEfficacy outcome
In the model, emulated GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy gave an absolute CVD risk reduction of 2.7% in women, a relative reduction of 23%.
In plain wordsA computer model projected a heart disease risk drop for female cases if GLP-1 drug effects applied. No drug was given.
Peptide
Semaglutide
Outcome
DecreaseAbsolute CVD risk reduction in women
Study
humann: not reported in source
Cardiovascular risk model applied to survey cohorts
Outcome group
Cardiovascular events · Cardiovascular
Measurements
Absolute reduction
2.7%
women
Relative reduction
23%
women
Source sentences
Summary
Absolute reductions were larger in men than in women (3.14% [95% CI: 2.82%-3.47%] vs 2.7% [95% CI: 2.23%-3.16%]), with similar potential relative reductions across sexes (21% vs 23%).
2 context sentences(design, population, supporting numbers)
Summary · context
This study aims to emulate GLP-1RA use for primary prevention by applying risk factor changes observed in the SELECT (Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes) trial to obese individuals at risk of but without established CVD.
Summary · context
This model was applied to 200,012 individuals from 2 contemporary health examination surveys to emulate GLP-1RA therapy by using sex-stratified, placebo-adjusted changes in the 5 risk factors observed with GLP-1RA therapy in SELECT.
In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. This result is not evidence about taking Semaglutide.
Report a problemFND-4181127703
04Computer modelNot a test of Semaglutide aloneIn silicoEfficacy outcome
In the model, projected risk reductions from emulated GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy were smaller in nonobese and lower SCORE2 groups.
In plain wordsA computer model projected smaller heart disease risk drops in groups without obesity or with lower baseline risk. No drug was given.
Peptide
Semaglutide
Outcome
DecreaseModeled risk reduction in nonobese and lower SCORE2 groups
Study
humann: not reported in source
Cardiovascular risk model applied to survey cohorts
Outcome group
Cardiovascular events · Cardiovascular
Source sentences
Summary
Modeled risk reductions were attenuated in nonobese and lower SCORE2 groups and diminished further with lower compliance assumptions.
2 context sentences(design, population, supporting numbers)
Summary · context
This study aims to emulate GLP-1RA use for primary prevention by applying risk factor changes observed in the SELECT (Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes) trial to obese individuals at risk of but without established CVD.
Summary · context
This model was applied to 200,012 individuals from 2 contemporary health examination surveys to emulate GLP-1RA therapy by using sex-stratified, placebo-adjusted changes in the 5 risk factors observed with GLP-1RA therapy in SELECT.
In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. This result is not evidence about taking Semaglutide.
Report a problemFND-4181127704
05Computer modelNot a test of Semaglutide aloneIn silicoEfficacy outcome
In the model, projected risk reductions from emulated GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy diminished further with lower compliance assumptions.
In plain wordsA computer model projected smaller heart disease risk drops when drug use was assumed to be less consistent. No drug was given.
Peptide
Semaglutide
Outcome
DecreaseModeled risk reduction under lower compliance
Study
humann: not reported in source
Cardiovascular risk model applied to survey cohorts
Outcome group
Cardiovascular events · Cardiovascular
Source sentences
Summary
Modeled risk reductions were attenuated in nonobese and lower SCORE2 groups and diminished further with lower compliance assumptions.
2 context sentences(design, population, supporting numbers)
Summary · context
This study aims to emulate GLP-1RA use for primary prevention by applying risk factor changes observed in the SELECT (Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes) trial to obese individuals at risk of but without established CVD.
Summary · context
This model was applied to 200,012 individuals from 2 contemporary health examination surveys to emulate GLP-1RA therapy by using sex-stratified, placebo-adjusted changes in the 5 risk factors observed with GLP-1RA therapy in SELECT.
In this study, Semaglutide was a lab tool or a carrier, part of a mix, or the subject of a lab method. This result is not evidence about taking Semaglutide.
Report a problemFND-4181127705

AI wrote and checked these results. AI can make mistakes, so check important results against the source.

Version history

PepBank keeps every version of the data on this study. Status changes from Retraction Watch, Europe PMC and Crossref are listed with their source.

Version 2Current
11 Oct 2026, 00:04 UTC
Study results updated
Version 1
9 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC
First added · source update from Europe PMC

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